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A new analysis of all 346 published 14C dated Holocene alluvial units in Britain offers a unique insight into the regional impacts of global change and shows how surprisingly sensitive British rivers have been to relatively modest but repeated changes in climate. Fourteen major but probably brief periods of flooding are identified bracketed within the periods 400–1070, 1940–3940, 7520–8100 and at ca. 10 420 cal. yr BP. There is a strong correspondence between climatic deteriorations inferred from mire wet shifts and major periods of flooding, especially at ca. 8000 cal. yr BP and since ca. 4000 cal. yr BP. The unusually long and complete British record also demonstrates that alterations in land cover have resulted in a step change in river basin sensitivity to variations in climate. This has very important implications for assessing and mitigating the impact of increasing severe flooding. In small and medium‐sized river basins land use is likely to play a key role in either moderating or amplifying the climatic signal. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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M. R. Bate S. H. Lubow G. I. Ogilvie K. A. Miller 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(1):213-229
We analyse the non-linear, three-dimensional response of a gaseous, viscous protoplanetary disc to the presence of a planet of mass ranging from 1 Earth mass (1 M⊕ ) to 1 Jupiter mass (1 MJ ) by using the zeus hydrodynamics code. We determine the gas flow pattern, and the accretion and migration rates of the planet. The planet is assumed to be in a fixed circular orbit about the central star. It is also assumed to be able to accrete gas without expansion on the scale of its Roche radius. Only planets with masses M p ≳ 0.1 MJ produce significant perturbations in the surface density of the disc. The flow within the Roche lobe of the planet is fully three-dimensional. Gas streams generally enter the Roche lobe close to the disc mid-plane, but produce much weaker shocks than the streams in two-dimensional models. The streams supply material to a circumplanetary disc that rotates in the same sense as the orbit of the planet. Much of the mass supply to the circumplanetary disc comes from non-coplanar flow. The accretion rate peaks with a planet mass of approximately 0.1 MJ and is highly efficient, occurring at the local viscous rate. The migration time-scales for planets of mass less than 0.1 MJ , based on torques from disc material outside the Roche lobes of the planets, are in excellent agreement with the linear theory of type I (non-gap) migration for three-dimensional discs. The transition from type I to type II (gap) migration is smooth, with changes in migration times of about a factor of 2. Starting with a core which can undergo runaway growth, a planet can gain up to a few MJ with little migration. Planets with final masses of the order of 10 MJ would undergo large migration, which makes formation and survival difficult. 相似文献
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